The 2025 numbers tell a story of meaningful but insufficient progress. Approximately 180 residential solar systems were installed — a 34% increase over 2024. Total installed capacity reached ~2.4 megawatts; avoided emissions ~1,950 tonnes of CO2 per year.
What Drove Growth
Three factors: the 0% import duty waiver extended through December 2026 (providing buyer confidence); an ~8% year-over-year decline in panel prices bringing 5kW systems below XCD 45,000 for the first time; and rising APUA bills pushing households to seek alternatives.
Why Growth Was Still Insufficient
2.4MW is less than 1% of ~60MW peak demand. Reaching 50% renewable by 2030 requires ~30MW additional — a 12x increase in four years. Primary constraints: no finalized net metering rules, financing accessibility gaps, and limited installer workforce.
Commercial Underperformance
The hotel and tourism sector — Antigua's largest energy consumer — has been slow to adopt solar despite sub-7-year paybacks. Capital budgeting cycles, resort ownership structures, and regulatory uncertainty are the primary barriers. A clear commercial-scale net metering framework could unlock significant deployment.
2026 Outlook
Base case: 250–280 residential installations, commercial potentially doubling with regulatory clarity. Total capacity could reach 4–5MW — meaningful progress, but still far short of the 2030 target trajectory.